First, let’s establish a one thing; Both fighters are not the same fighters they were in March of 2008. With that being said, what’s so different about both fighters?

Pacquiao’s Changes

  • He’s in his prime
  • Manny is even stronger
  • Improved as boxer (right hand, timing, foot working, counterpunching, intelligence)
  • Improved upper body movement
Marquez’ Changes
  • He’s older, past his prime
  • He’s an even wiser boxer
Naturally, Pacquiao had more room to improve as a boxer based on the simple fact that he has never been as a great a technical boxer as Juan and still is not to this day. Naturally it’s expected that Pacquiao has more changes toward the positive than Juan who is on the wrong side of 30 (38).

 

Marquez Keys To Victory

  • Utilize great footwork: Manny Pacquiao is incapable of cutting off the ring. Constantly stay on the balls your feet in order to be in position to explode a counterpunch or lead right into a window of opportunity and escape swiftly- negating any chance Manny has to counter. Then reset for the next stanza.
  • Control Distance: Keep your lead left foot outside of Manny’s lead right root and be sure to not engage from too far of a distance as Manny will surely step back and counter you with a right hook and follow with a straight left.
  • Only throw jabs of the urgent nature: Do not throw passive jabs that will leave you open to right hook counters followed by straight lefts. Manny’s trademark response to a jab is to bounce back and counter with a right hook followed by a straight left. Juan must feint first to throw off Manny’s timing then throw jabs and duck away all in one motion- a la Floyd Mayweather. And don’t forget, Southpaws are suckers for right hands.
  • Clinch, often: This is totally against Marquez’ nature, but since the motto of training this camp he’s been trying new things, Juan can’t afford to not add clinching to his arsenal. Boxing is about points. In order to limit Manny’s opportunities to score points, clinch him on the inside. Even better, clinch Manny after you land straight rights and jabs. Let the ref separate you, then circle the ref as the fight is called to resume.
  • Stay committed: Focus is the key here. Marquez must remain focused on being committed to the keys. He can’t abandon great footwork and distance control. Manny has a habit of growing impatient and will resolve to rushing in with his traditional straight right, straight left. If Juan remains committed, he can frustrate Manny into making mistakes. This is where Juan’s distance and being on the balls of  his feet will allow him to take advantage of Manny’s impatience and poor engagement technique.

Pacquiao Keys To Victory

  • Lateral Movement: Manny Pacquiao must employ lateral movement as Marquez will surely backpedal the entire match. Forward movement will only walk Pacquiao into counterpunches, and right hand leads. Since Manny will be in chase mode all night, he may only to find lead right hands meeting his chin. Manny must use lateral movement to cut off the ring and stop Juan for evading him with right hands and counters up the middle.
  • Lead Left Hand: Southpaws surprise orthodox fighters quite often when they lead with left hands. This must be done from a square stance. When Manny is using his great upper body movement, throw in a broken-rhythm’d lead left followed by a right to catch Marquez off guard.
  • Maintain A High Pace: Remember that Marquez is 38 years old and he’s carrying weight that’s not natural for him. Force him into a sprinter’s race, round-after-round, just to wear his legs down in later rounds so that he’ll be prime for the picking when he slows down and becomes flat footed.
  • Punch Variety: Manny is praised for volleying punches at his opponents from all angles. Truth is, this phenomena is relative to his opponents lack of footwork. If he’s fighting someone flat footed, Manny can box circles around them. If he’s fighting someone who uses even marginal footwork to back away from him, Manny has issues. Manny not only needs to cut off the ring, he also needs to throw a variety of punches besides his straight right- left. Perfect example was the frustration of Manny not realizing how to hit a backpedalling Mosley. The truth that Manny is a one trick pony was realized when Manny chased Mosley for 9 rounds using the same lunging straight right-left-right combo attempt. Manny must utilize a variety of punches.
  • Feint, often: The best way to throw off the timing of a a counterpunching guru such as Marquez is to feint him. Counterpunching lives on timing. Show Marquez a few punches in the same rhythm so that he can adjust to that timing. The break that rhythm with a feint. Feinting destroys timing and opens the opponent up to quick jabs when they least expect them.
  • Keep your right hand up: Manny has a nasty habit of dropping his right hand when the throws his left and it causes him to get hit by counter left uppercuts.

Prediction

Pacquiao by TKO in the 11th round. Marquez will make a conscious effort to not get knocked down early. Marquez will look sharp in the first 4 rounds. Juan will make a conscious effort to stay mobile and avoid an early knockdown only to lose a little discipline in the mid to later rounds and get caught flush by Manny’s much improved punching.

HBO offered up their keys to victory. They touch on some great points. The only problem I had with the analysis is that they are analyzing a slightly different Pacquiao. The 2008 edition. Check it out.

What are your predictions: Pacquiao or Marquez, and why?